Kimberley’s social media is buzzing once again after Sol Plaatje Municipality shared a Fin24 article where Ted Blom argued that there is a 50% probability of an immanent total nation wide blackout.
There have been frequent speculation, opinions, articles and press releases throughout 2015 on the subject from similar claims of immanent collapse to statements from Government that such claims are nothing more than a hoax.
Hoax or Reality?
Like with most claims the truth is usually found somewhere in between.
While there is a definite probability of a nationwide total collapse of the power grid there is only a very small minority which believe that the probability is any higher than remote to highly unlikely. Furthermore trying to portray the probability of total grid collapse into a percentage cannot be based on any good match or statistics. There is nowhere near enough statistical or any other measurable data available on the subject.
With his “50% probability statement” Blom is stooping Eskom’s level of determining probability and risk in their notices, where frequently information without reference and data becomes meaningless.
Copies of original information below.
Johannesburg – There is a more than 50% chance that the country’s energy grid will suffer a total collapse soon, energy analyst Ted Blom said on Wednesday.
“I believe that the probability of a grid meltdown is more than 50%,” he told a National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) panel at a public hearing in Johannesburg on Eskom’s application for a further hike in tariffs.
“According to my estimate, the weekend or overnight demand is around about 22 GW (gigawatts)… I might be wrong by a couple of gigawatts, I am not too worried about that.