LOADSHEDDING OUTLOOK AS AT 08/12/2018
Short Term Outlook
According to Eskom no load shedding is anticipated for Sunday, 09 December 2018.
UPDATE: 19:00 08/12/2018: “An increase in breakdowns at our power stations today has further impacted the availability of sufficient generation capacity. As a result, we have been unable to build up the necessary reserves for the week ahead. We therefore regret to announce that up to Stage 2 loadshedding remains a high probability for tomorrow (Sunday, 09 December). As previously announced, there also remains a high probability of Stage 2 loadshedding for Monday, 10 December.
We apologise for the late notification and the inconvenience this may cause” Eskom
From Monday, 1o December to Thursday, 13 December there is a HIGH probability that Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented to deal with the anticipated rise in electricity demand during the week.
No load shedding is anticipated from Friday, 14 December 2018 to Sunday, 13 January 2019.
The main reason for this is the expected decrease in electricity demand as many industries and businesses close for the festive season.
However, the heavy rains that are normally experienced over the December period could impact coal handling and negatively affect generation.
Eskom continue to warn customers that while no loadshedding is anticipated during this period, the power system remains vulnerable and any shift could result in rotational loadshedding. Supply interruptions due to localised power outages could also occur.
Three Month Outlook
This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to brown (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.
Notes- Assumptions critical:
The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2 000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa not included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly peak Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 7 500 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 9 700 MW Installed Capacity: 45 572 MW